Mayawati is in legal trouble for installing her statues with Public Money (over $300 Million and growing) in UP
http://www.timesnow.tv/EC-issues-notice-to-Maya-over-statue-pree/articleshow/4324006.cms
Well, she can in one stroke convert her most controversial action into wider international acclaim and even become an ecological political icon
She can convert her statues as solar power producing by coating them with special paint, which can convert solar light into electricity.
This is not a science fiction stuff or a geek’s fantasy. Italy is planning to build a 200ft high, solar energy-producing statue of one of its most cherished saints, Padre Pio
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/5978928/Italy-to-build-solar-energy-producing-statue-of-saint.html
This way Mayawati can also contribute to improving power situation in UP, which is becoming worse with each passing year.
Indian leaders need to think about public utility as well when they plan and construct national monuments/ structures. The case in point is in Malaysia, where government not only build Petronas Towers as monuments of Malaysian pride and identity but also converted them into office space, which in no time became most sought after office address in Malaysia and South East Asia.
If Malaysia and Italy can do it, then why cannot M(alaysia)AYAWATI(taly)…
Monday, August 10, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Execution Barrier 1 : Why companies don’t get it right?... Profit Making Motive rather than Idea Implementation
I read “Execution: Discipline of getting things done” by Ram Charan first time when I was in college doing MBA. I couldn’t appreciate value of execution at that time but still thought it was an excellent book.
After few years of corporate life and seeing the world change at unimaginable pace ( both boom and bust), I was wondering about Execution Barriers and Ram Charan’s book (though a good read ) cannot provide all the answers.
So what are Execution Barriers ?
Execution Barrier 1: Profit Making Motive rather than Idea Implementation
What will drive and inspire a team to produce extra ordinary results?
Setting financial goals like increasing sales by X, increasing Profit by Y, increasing share price by Z and then following this up in reviews?
Or implementing a unique product or process idea which is unprecedented and difficult to achieve and following this idea implementation process?
Idea can be a new product , better quality, better service , better on time delivery, affordable pricing , a different channel, user experience etc that on implementing will provide customers a better product or service proposition.
Radical ideas are contagious and inspire team more than financial targets. If implemented successfully they can even help to over shoot financial targets X,Y or Z.
Most executives and corporates miss the above and set only financial goals X,Y,Z and expect their team members to figure out the details, “ I don’t care what you do, just meet these numbers !!”
One cannot engage and inspire the team in this way. On the contrary , an inspiring and radical idea can even motivate folks to work and implement it for free ( like Linux, Wikipedia etc..)
Most successful examples in recent corporate history such as Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Cisco, Ikea, Dell, South West Airlines, Sony, Tata, Walmart, Infosys, Huawei, Reliance were those of successful idea implementers. These corporates had their radical ideas, which inspired their team to develop new products, services and processes, Thus inspiring their team to develop wining business propositions while executing on their ideas.
There will be many corporates whose radical ideas were not successful e.g. infamous Motorola Iridium case.
How can one know whether his idea is worth implementing? There is only one way to know, Just do it!! . Outcome will be successful, when idea is implemented passionately and meets right market opportunity (like Microsoft’s OS met growing PC demand). However some corporates might not be that lucky.
Luck or external environment is not in one’s control but executing an idea can certainly be one’s choice, which will be more inspiring and engaging than mere financial targets which most companies follow.
So what’s your big idea ?
To Be Contd…
After few years of corporate life and seeing the world change at unimaginable pace ( both boom and bust), I was wondering about Execution Barriers and Ram Charan’s book (though a good read ) cannot provide all the answers.
So what are Execution Barriers ?
Execution Barrier 1: Profit Making Motive rather than Idea Implementation
What will drive and inspire a team to produce extra ordinary results?
Setting financial goals like increasing sales by X, increasing Profit by Y, increasing share price by Z and then following this up in reviews?
Or implementing a unique product or process idea which is unprecedented and difficult to achieve and following this idea implementation process?
Idea can be a new product , better quality, better service , better on time delivery, affordable pricing , a different channel, user experience etc that on implementing will provide customers a better product or service proposition.
Radical ideas are contagious and inspire team more than financial targets. If implemented successfully they can even help to over shoot financial targets X,Y or Z.
Most executives and corporates miss the above and set only financial goals X,Y,Z and expect their team members to figure out the details, “ I don’t care what you do, just meet these numbers !!”
One cannot engage and inspire the team in this way. On the contrary , an inspiring and radical idea can even motivate folks to work and implement it for free ( like Linux, Wikipedia etc..)
Most successful examples in recent corporate history such as Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Cisco, Ikea, Dell, South West Airlines, Sony, Tata, Walmart, Infosys, Huawei, Reliance were those of successful idea implementers. These corporates had their radical ideas, which inspired their team to develop new products, services and processes, Thus inspiring their team to develop wining business propositions while executing on their ideas.
There will be many corporates whose radical ideas were not successful e.g. infamous Motorola Iridium case.
How can one know whether his idea is worth implementing? There is only one way to know, Just do it!! . Outcome will be successful, when idea is implemented passionately and meets right market opportunity (like Microsoft’s OS met growing PC demand). However some corporates might not be that lucky.
Luck or external environment is not in one’s control but executing an idea can certainly be one’s choice, which will be more inspiring and engaging than mere financial targets which most companies follow.
So what’s your big idea ?
To Be Contd…
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Jakarta Blast, E Nose & Obama’s Stimulus Plan
I was surprised to hear about Jakarta Blasts in Marriott and Ritz Carlton Hotel the other day.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8155084.stm
The first time I visited Jakarta was in Feb 2008. Since then I have been visiting Jakarta every alternate month. I was surprised to see airport like strict security checks in all 5 star hotels. Every time one enters or moves out of the hotel, one has to go through metal detector gates, frisking and bag checks etc etc. What the hell, I thought…My Indonesia colleague told me that Indonesia has terrorist attacks in the past and the targets are often 5 star hotels where foreigners stay, hence this airport like security in these hotels.
During my visit last month, I visited Marriott and Ritz Carlton for meetings. Security there was much tighter than any other 5 star hotel in town. But in spite of such tight security, a terrorist attack in form of blast took place. This reminds us that even of the tightest securities can be breached.
However, the situation was in control within short time, an unexplored bomb was detected, control room was found out and the terrorist weren’t allowed the free hand like the one that was witnessed in Mumbai Terrorist attack in Nov 2008.
Preparedness cannot all together prevent these incidents but can help to minimize the impact: the difference between Mumbai and Jakarta attack.
I wrote in my earlier article that scenario planning can help in prevention of Mumbai like terrorist act.
http://pareekhjain.blogspot.com/2008/12/mumbai-terror-attack-missing-link-in.html
That is not applicable to situation as was in Jakarta because they were following most of the scenarios mentioned in the above post.
Are there any technology solutions which can be useful in further minimizing the chance and impact of such terrorist attacks??
The answer is Yes, one such solution being Electric Nose (E Nose) solution.
E Nose is like an artificial nose which can help disabled people (who lost sense of smell) to generate smell stimulus and direct it to the brain. It is in early stage of development. This concept can be enhanced to develop artificial smell detectors that will be able to detect almost all types of smells that human nose can detect.
Humans cannot detect explosive material by nose. So this technology can further be developed to augment human sensing capability with addition of animals smell sensing capability such as smell sensing capability of sniffer dogs. This thus can be used to detect explosives smell and detect its transportation, storage and usages.
If these smell detectors will be placed in hotels and other sensitive and random places, explosives will be much easier to detect.
So why such fantastic solutions so much needed today are not coming up? Necessity is the mother of invention and demand of E nose for medical purpose is lying at the backseat as it is not necessity when compared to other pressing health needs of eyes, ears, brain, heart, organ transplantation, gene therapy , cancer, AIDS, diabetes etc..
Thus, a technology push and stimulus plan focusing on E Nose can help in accelerating its development but this doesn’t looks like a priority of the moment…
If some fraction of Obama's Stimulus Plan can be put to accelerate development of such technologies, these solutions can be employed for safety of the common man. But current focus is on being Green. Hmmm a question of the moment pops up here: If the choice is between Green and Grenade Free, what will you choose?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8155084.stm
The first time I visited Jakarta was in Feb 2008. Since then I have been visiting Jakarta every alternate month. I was surprised to see airport like strict security checks in all 5 star hotels. Every time one enters or moves out of the hotel, one has to go through metal detector gates, frisking and bag checks etc etc. What the hell, I thought…My Indonesia colleague told me that Indonesia has terrorist attacks in the past and the targets are often 5 star hotels where foreigners stay, hence this airport like security in these hotels.
During my visit last month, I visited Marriott and Ritz Carlton for meetings. Security there was much tighter than any other 5 star hotel in town. But in spite of such tight security, a terrorist attack in form of blast took place. This reminds us that even of the tightest securities can be breached.
However, the situation was in control within short time, an unexplored bomb was detected, control room was found out and the terrorist weren’t allowed the free hand like the one that was witnessed in Mumbai Terrorist attack in Nov 2008.
Preparedness cannot all together prevent these incidents but can help to minimize the impact: the difference between Mumbai and Jakarta attack.
I wrote in my earlier article that scenario planning can help in prevention of Mumbai like terrorist act.
http://pareekhjain.blogspot.com/2008/12/mumbai-terror-attack-missing-link-in.html
That is not applicable to situation as was in Jakarta because they were following most of the scenarios mentioned in the above post.
Are there any technology solutions which can be useful in further minimizing the chance and impact of such terrorist attacks??
The answer is Yes, one such solution being Electric Nose (E Nose) solution.
E Nose is like an artificial nose which can help disabled people (who lost sense of smell) to generate smell stimulus and direct it to the brain. It is in early stage of development. This concept can be enhanced to develop artificial smell detectors that will be able to detect almost all types of smells that human nose can detect.
Humans cannot detect explosive material by nose. So this technology can further be developed to augment human sensing capability with addition of animals smell sensing capability such as smell sensing capability of sniffer dogs. This thus can be used to detect explosives smell and detect its transportation, storage and usages.
If these smell detectors will be placed in hotels and other sensitive and random places, explosives will be much easier to detect.
So why such fantastic solutions so much needed today are not coming up? Necessity is the mother of invention and demand of E nose for medical purpose is lying at the backseat as it is not necessity when compared to other pressing health needs of eyes, ears, brain, heart, organ transplantation, gene therapy , cancer, AIDS, diabetes etc..
Thus, a technology push and stimulus plan focusing on E Nose can help in accelerating its development but this doesn’t looks like a priority of the moment…
If some fraction of Obama's Stimulus Plan can be put to accelerate development of such technologies, these solutions can be employed for safety of the common man. But current focus is on being Green. Hmmm a question of the moment pops up here: If the choice is between Green and Grenade Free, what will you choose?
Saturday, June 13, 2009
To Succeed or Not To Succeed : Meeting Bollywood Stars @ IIFA
Success is not permanent! What would be one's life after success is all over? If one knows in foresight about how life will look like after success disappears then will one have second thoughts on to succeed or not to succeed??
My thoughts above got triggered from an unexpected event: Meeting Bollywood Stars.
Being an avid Bollywood movie buff and a probability student, I used to calculate probability of meeting film stars at airports. Why? Well, I travel fair bit but never got a chance of meeting any movie star at any airport or a foreign city. I came to the conclusion that unless I act on prior information and plan my visit accordingly, probability of finding them unexpectedly is very low and a rare event (black swan event)
Little did I know that black swan will appear very next week and it would leave me with a strange thought!
I was traveling on June 11 from Kuala Lumpur to Shenzhen. I was suppose to board ferry from Hong Kong airport to Shenzhen. When I reached at the Shenzhen Ferry Ticket Counter, I saw a notice at adjoining Macau Ferry Counter: HK Airport welcomes IIFA Guests. Next moment, I suddenly realized that a contingent of film stars are about to come and take ferry to Macau. That was the chance surely not to be missed!!
In next few minutes I saw who's who of Indian Film Industry. So black swan can happen and all probably calculations can go wrong!!
Some movie stars I recognized immediately, some I took time to recognize as real appearance is different from on screen appearance. Some I didn’t recognize at all. Among the last category was - one old guy who caught my attention, wearing very unusual dress and standing alone from the group...I tried to recognize who he was? Couldn't figure it out? I thought him to be some back stage guy and forgot about it. In next few minutes as whole contingent assembled, they went away.
Later after having a quick sip at Cappuccino and recharging myself again, I moved to Ferry Gates for security check. (It is very intense and close door security check in small groups at HK airport for Ferry Travelers). To my surprise, I saw same contingent of film stars coming for security check too (so what, you are film stars you need to pass security check too!!). I was last guy in the queue at that time. And film contingent was to follow me in the same queue. Interesting, I was loving it, dint mind it at all...another black swan, further close film star encounter
I was wishing some pretty face or handsome hunk star would follow next to me in the queue… but soon I realized that I am not going to be that lucky...same old guy who caught my attention earlier came forward first and stood next to me...Damn Bad luck...his hands were trembling, he looked lost & disgusted ...
Seeing me he smiled and said hello...At this moment, I looked closely at him and his eyes. I couldn't believe who he was ... Yesteryear Superstar Rajesh Khanna ... Still I felt the need to confirm, politely I asked: Are you Rajesh Khanna? He smiled and said Yes...next moment he was totally lost again in his own world...as if he was saying “30 years back whole India knew me and now you are asking me who I am?”
One of his associates was accompanying him and guiding him like a Child/ lost person ...Couldn’t believe yesteryear's superstar will be in such a situation today... I felt at that moment that it is difficult to come to terms for loss of success after having tasted success…
This made me think what Taleb mentioned in his book - People get more hurt by loss than feel happy by gain ...Gain of 10 at base of 70 to take one to 80 will prove to be less joyful than the pain of coming to 70 from the base of 80...What say?
If a person knows that he has a chance of super success in future but it will gradually boil down to failure later, will he choose to go up and come down? or will he say: no thank you to relative success - I am doing good...I don't need momentarily super success…I do not want to spend rest of my life figuring out - Who Moved My Super Success … and I do not want to live with pain of becoming nobody from known buddy at airports...
My thoughts above got triggered from an unexpected event: Meeting Bollywood Stars.
Being an avid Bollywood movie buff and a probability student, I used to calculate probability of meeting film stars at airports. Why? Well, I travel fair bit but never got a chance of meeting any movie star at any airport or a foreign city. I came to the conclusion that unless I act on prior information and plan my visit accordingly, probability of finding them unexpectedly is very low and a rare event (black swan event)
Little did I know that black swan will appear very next week and it would leave me with a strange thought!
I was traveling on June 11 from Kuala Lumpur to Shenzhen. I was suppose to board ferry from Hong Kong airport to Shenzhen. When I reached at the Shenzhen Ferry Ticket Counter, I saw a notice at adjoining Macau Ferry Counter: HK Airport welcomes IIFA Guests. Next moment, I suddenly realized that a contingent of film stars are about to come and take ferry to Macau. That was the chance surely not to be missed!!
In next few minutes I saw who's who of Indian Film Industry. So black swan can happen and all probably calculations can go wrong!!
Some movie stars I recognized immediately, some I took time to recognize as real appearance is different from on screen appearance. Some I didn’t recognize at all. Among the last category was - one old guy who caught my attention, wearing very unusual dress and standing alone from the group...I tried to recognize who he was? Couldn't figure it out? I thought him to be some back stage guy and forgot about it. In next few minutes as whole contingent assembled, they went away.
Later after having a quick sip at Cappuccino and recharging myself again, I moved to Ferry Gates for security check. (It is very intense and close door security check in small groups at HK airport for Ferry Travelers). To my surprise, I saw same contingent of film stars coming for security check too (so what, you are film stars you need to pass security check too!!). I was last guy in the queue at that time. And film contingent was to follow me in the same queue. Interesting, I was loving it, dint mind it at all...another black swan, further close film star encounter
I was wishing some pretty face or handsome hunk star would follow next to me in the queue… but soon I realized that I am not going to be that lucky...same old guy who caught my attention earlier came forward first and stood next to me...Damn Bad luck...his hands were trembling, he looked lost & disgusted ...
Seeing me he smiled and said hello...At this moment, I looked closely at him and his eyes. I couldn't believe who he was ... Yesteryear Superstar Rajesh Khanna ... Still I felt the need to confirm, politely I asked: Are you Rajesh Khanna? He smiled and said Yes...next moment he was totally lost again in his own world...as if he was saying “30 years back whole India knew me and now you are asking me who I am?”
One of his associates was accompanying him and guiding him like a Child/ lost person ...Couldn’t believe yesteryear's superstar will be in such a situation today... I felt at that moment that it is difficult to come to terms for loss of success after having tasted success…
This made me think what Taleb mentioned in his book - People get more hurt by loss than feel happy by gain ...Gain of 10 at base of 70 to take one to 80 will prove to be less joyful than the pain of coming to 70 from the base of 80...What say?
If a person knows that he has a chance of super success in future but it will gradually boil down to failure later, will he choose to go up and come down? or will he say: no thank you to relative success - I am doing good...I don't need momentarily super success…I do not want to spend rest of my life figuring out - Who Moved My Super Success … and I do not want to live with pain of becoming nobody from known buddy at airports...
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence: Melbourne next Silicon Valley or an Immigrant Unfriendly City
I was in Melbourne during 18 - 23 May, a week before infamous attack on Indian Students.This was my maiden visit to Australia. I must say , of all the countries I have visited so far (Americas, Europe, Asia, Middle East) I was most impressed by Australia. My first impression was that Australia is one of the best and safest place for Immigrant Indians. You find every fourth person Indian , more North Indian restaurants in Melbourne than in Bangalore or Kuala Lumpur, Cricket Bars, Melbourne Cricket Ground and an average person can be engaged in cricket conversation etc.
My Australian colleague told me that Melbourne has largest number ofimmigrants in Australia and is most immigrant friendly city in Australia. Not only Indians, there is significant presence of other nationalities too in this city. A Case in point is Greeks (third largest Greek population in the world after Athens and one more city in Greece). Similar statistics for other nationalities too..
I found average native Australian walking on the road more friendly and approachable than most of the other western countries. Asking for photo click led to a short conversation and smile...Are you on a holiday? Should I click one more pic with different background? Have you visited MCG? Are you tracking IPL?
For a moment, I was comparing Melbourne to Silicon Valley. Having done extensive work on Cities and Clusters of Competitiveness in my earlier role, I was tempted to think about the possibility of Melbourne as next Silicon Valley ? (That was my to do list to study more in detail)
Little I felt that I will be turned wrong by destiny of events in the next week itself. It is like Taleb mentioned in "Fooled by Randomness", Absence of Evidence doesn't mean there is Evidence of Absence. Absence of evidence of racial related crimes doesn't mean that there is evidence of absence of racial related crimes and this a safe city. A single event ( Black Swan ) is enough to turn hypothesis of Melbourne most immigrant friendly city and next Silicon Valley wrong.
Irony is that I was staying in a hotel on Spring Street opposite to Victorian Parliament and was thinking about competitiveness of Melbourne -- the same place where Indian Community led their agitation rally today i.e. a week later...
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Uniqueness of Horoscope: Theory of Probability and Black Swan of Astrology
Is one’s horoscope unique? What are the chances that any other person might have similar horoscope and hence similar destiny?
Well that could be a mathematical GMAT problem...Asking what is the probability of finding two identical horoscopes?
According to Vedic Astrology there are 9 important planetary objects: Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, Sun, Moon, Venus, Mercury, Rahu, and Ketu.
There are twelve houses in one’s horoscope. And these 9 planetary objects can occupy any of the twelve houses. More than one planetary object can occupy a same house. Only constraint is that Rahu and Ketu should always be in opposite houses.
So there are (8) ^ 12 combinations possible i.e. 68719476736 (68. 7 billion)
Well they are more complexities
Each Planet can be placed in any of the 12 Zodiac Signs i.e. Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces.
Thus total possible combinations are now (8) ^ 24 i.e. 4.72236648 × 10^21 (4722 billion times billion)…I cannot count them..! (Is it the limit of human population on earth / universe / space? Well that can be another point of discussion!)
Further, there are additional complexities in horoscope such as divisional charts having their own multiple possible combinations (Ignore this complexity in this discussion)
Still for 6 Billion Population we have 4722 billion times billion or more possible combinations…So possibilities of uniqueness of horoscopes cannot be doubted!!
With so much complexities and possibilities in a single horoscope how do astrologers predict? Here is the catch...They look for individual combinations and placements of planetary objects in isolation whose probability is often 1/12 or 1/6 like any planetary object is in particular house/ in particular zodiac sign or two planets are in same house/ opposite to each other.
Each heuristic when looked upon individually looks manageable (1 in 12 persons may have this astrological combination). Astrologers predict the pattern and destiny by combining few of these heuristics
So with uncountable number of possible combinations can these heuristics predict all possibilities? Not possible.
When there are uncountable number of combinations, do astrologers know patterns for all success? No, again not possible
How were these heuristics developed? Guess they were developed studying backwards (Observing extraordinary successes and failures and in turn identifying commonalities in their horoscope patterns).
So, what astrologers know are past patterns of some of the heuristics associated with individual success or failures. They try identifying and looking for similar patterns in an individual’s horoscope while doing predictions.
However, when unexpected success or failure comes up, astrologers again work backwards and develop new heuristics or a possible explanation of existing heuristics with second, third or fourth order effect.
Hence, astrology can explain successes or failures based on past patterns but it cannot anticipate unexpected new outcomes. Similar is the story of risk management and black swan phenomena. Most of our knowledge of risk management is based on past events. From this knowledge, we keep try developing fool proof systems but they cannot guarantee safety from unexpected events. Yes history repeats itself, but not always. Sometimes new history is also created. This is exactly Taleb’s “Black Swan” and possible limitations of predictive astrology…Black Swans of Astrology can and will appear…
Well that could be a mathematical GMAT problem...Asking what is the probability of finding two identical horoscopes?
According to Vedic Astrology there are 9 important planetary objects: Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, Sun, Moon, Venus, Mercury, Rahu, and Ketu.
There are twelve houses in one’s horoscope. And these 9 planetary objects can occupy any of the twelve houses. More than one planetary object can occupy a same house. Only constraint is that Rahu and Ketu should always be in opposite houses.
So there are (8) ^ 12 combinations possible i.e. 68719476736 (68. 7 billion)
Well they are more complexities
Each Planet can be placed in any of the 12 Zodiac Signs i.e. Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces.
Thus total possible combinations are now (8) ^ 24 i.e. 4.72236648 × 10^21 (4722 billion times billion)…I cannot count them..! (Is it the limit of human population on earth / universe / space? Well that can be another point of discussion!)
Further, there are additional complexities in horoscope such as divisional charts having their own multiple possible combinations (Ignore this complexity in this discussion)
Still for 6 Billion Population we have 4722 billion times billion or more possible combinations…So possibilities of uniqueness of horoscopes cannot be doubted!!
With so much complexities and possibilities in a single horoscope how do astrologers predict? Here is the catch...They look for individual combinations and placements of planetary objects in isolation whose probability is often 1/12 or 1/6 like any planetary object is in particular house/ in particular zodiac sign or two planets are in same house/ opposite to each other.
Each heuristic when looked upon individually looks manageable (1 in 12 persons may have this astrological combination). Astrologers predict the pattern and destiny by combining few of these heuristics
So with uncountable number of possible combinations can these heuristics predict all possibilities? Not possible.
When there are uncountable number of combinations, do astrologers know patterns for all success? No, again not possible
How were these heuristics developed? Guess they were developed studying backwards (Observing extraordinary successes and failures and in turn identifying commonalities in their horoscope patterns).
So, what astrologers know are past patterns of some of the heuristics associated with individual success or failures. They try identifying and looking for similar patterns in an individual’s horoscope while doing predictions.
However, when unexpected success or failure comes up, astrologers again work backwards and develop new heuristics or a possible explanation of existing heuristics with second, third or fourth order effect.
Hence, astrology can explain successes or failures based on past patterns but it cannot anticipate unexpected new outcomes. Similar is the story of risk management and black swan phenomena. Most of our knowledge of risk management is based on past events. From this knowledge, we keep try developing fool proof systems but they cannot guarantee safety from unexpected events. Yes history repeats itself, but not always. Sometimes new history is also created. This is exactly Taleb’s “Black Swan” and possible limitations of predictive astrology…Black Swans of Astrology can and will appear…
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
What will be the future of software? Achieving Imperfection !
Software acts like substitute of human mind with much more processing capacity. Combining software with hardware (machine) acts like a substitute of complete human with mind to process and body to perform action.
Software has already replaced many tasks which were done by human mind earlier (individual or collective) such as ERP, Accounting, Business Intelligence… List will increase in future.
Combining Software with Machine to make smart machines is still on early evolution path. Basic rule based control systems can be performed now and this will evolve into smarter machines, appliances, cars, gadgets …
What is the future of software? To understand this, one needs to understand how mind works?
How does a human mind work?
Mind performs three broad categories of functions
*Analysis – Currently done by existing software but can be improved
*Imagination – Currently not done by existing software
*Information Collection – Currently existing software only receives user input – later self information collection by all senses – read, touch, hear, see
Comparing mind functions with existing software capabilities, It looks software capabilities are getting there. What can be the problems in future software evolution?
The biggest problem is that human mind doest not always work logically or in a rule bound way
Human mind has its own imperfections and biasness based on
*Intuition, Faith
*Emotions: Mood, Righteousness, Empathy, Hatred
*Selective Thinking: Exceptions, Processing full or only part of information
*Psychological Profile: Risk, Reward, Failure
*Prior Information: Curiosity, Information Gathering, Social Condition
Future of software development will demand development of competencies to understand above imperfections and incorporate them in software development.
For eg .. Risk management software tools in financial world failed because software were analytical, rule based and didn’t incorporate human imperfections. One can argue that software was right and human understanding of risk management was wrong. Well if end result is not achieved than blaming weakest link doesn’t offer any comfort.
Efforts of future software development will be to achieve this imperfection. If imperfection is achieved then distinguishing line between Man and Machine will get blurred.
Software has already replaced many tasks which were done by human mind earlier (individual or collective) such as ERP, Accounting, Business Intelligence… List will increase in future.
Combining Software with Machine to make smart machines is still on early evolution path. Basic rule based control systems can be performed now and this will evolve into smarter machines, appliances, cars, gadgets …
What is the future of software? To understand this, one needs to understand how mind works?
How does a human mind work?
Mind performs three broad categories of functions
*Analysis – Currently done by existing software but can be improved
*Imagination – Currently not done by existing software
*Information Collection – Currently existing software only receives user input – later self information collection by all senses – read, touch, hear, see
Comparing mind functions with existing software capabilities, It looks software capabilities are getting there. What can be the problems in future software evolution?
The biggest problem is that human mind doest not always work logically or in a rule bound way
Human mind has its own imperfections and biasness based on
*Intuition, Faith
*Emotions: Mood, Righteousness, Empathy, Hatred
*Selective Thinking: Exceptions, Processing full or only part of information
*Psychological Profile: Risk, Reward, Failure
*Prior Information: Curiosity, Information Gathering, Social Condition
Future of software development will demand development of competencies to understand above imperfections and incorporate them in software development.
For eg .. Risk management software tools in financial world failed because software were analytical, rule based and didn’t incorporate human imperfections. One can argue that software was right and human understanding of risk management was wrong. Well if end result is not achieved than blaming weakest link doesn’t offer any comfort.
Efforts of future software development will be to achieve this imperfection. If imperfection is achieved then distinguishing line between Man and Machine will get blurred.
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