Wednesday, August 17, 2011

UPS Market Landscape in 2015

How will the UPS ( Uninterrupted Power Supply) market shape up by 2015?

  • Top 3 Players will increase their share
  • New Global players will come
  • Focused M&A : Geographically or Product Line base


    Little bit of information of my new book:


    Website/ Where to buy -

    Facebook Page -

    A Business Fiction book - "Who is that lady?"

    The book is about an idea that is converted into a billion dollar business, about a belief that an idea can be implemented and about formulating right strategy for converting an idea into a business. The plot harmoniously weaves around complex business fundamentals, required to set up, run and make a business successful, presented in lucid, easy to understand style. The novel is about implementation, about challenges that can be overcome, about success, about friendship, about passion, and about fun above all! All in all a hilarious and inspiring story on entrepreneurship and idea possibilities!

    The book has got good and encouraging reviews from readers so far.

    Dr. T. R. Madanmohan ( Ex Associate Professor IIM Bangalore ) says, “Reading ‘Who is that lady?’ brought vividly the moments of celebration and anguish of "identification of business opportunity", validation and construction of business model and implementation. A wonderful, written as a novel, that should be read by all current and future business leaders. Wish the book was available around 2005 for my class of Managing Technology led business at IIM Bangalore. I am sure the class would have devoured and gained much more from the book.” 

    Sathish Sheshadri ( Management Consultant at IBM) says, “India is renowned for using stories to convey great life lessons. Who is that Lady could well become such a legendary story on the topic of innovation and entrepreneurship. Everyone from students to CEOs will find a lot to reflect on, from the pearls of wisdom that the authors have shared through the protagonist, Pratik.”

    Major Pooja Gupta says, “The book makes you think... if there is anything in this world which is impossible.”

    Subir Dhar (Principal Consultant at Infosys) says, “This book will inspire India’s restless youth to take up entrepreneurship.”

    Neerav Nimesh (Entrepreneur) says, “An entertaining book, which is not only a good novel but also a very good book on management. The author has been able to explain the fundamentals of every aspect of business whether marketing, planning, strategy, organizational structure, H.R., lines of communication, team work, goal setting etc and has done so without appearing to dispense "gyan".

    Website/ Where to buy -

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Data or Analysis or Innovation : Which is competitive advantage?

HBR blog has an interesting post arguing the case that competitive advantage comes from better data and not from analysis

Here assumption is that analysis has become commodity and data is scarce. This is an interesting U turn from earlier common belief that data is commodity and analysis is scarce.

The reasons are understandable. The MBA has now slowly become as Master of Business Analysis and as MBA factories generate more and more Analysts, and technology is automating analysis functions the Analysis is tending towards commodity. Point well taken!

One thing I am finding missing in this data and analysis discussion is Innovation. What kind of data will be scarce and give competitive advantage is as much function of innovative thinking as what kind of new analysis will give competitive advantage.

"Does wearing a red wristband on Tuesday gives one a competitive advantage?" is innovative hypothesis and to prove or discard this will require a database of color of wristbands of players on various days. If teams already have this database but has been overlooked then only analysis can give competitive advantage, otherwise generating a new database of color wrist bands will give one a competitive advantage.

So innovative thinking gives competitive advantage but it often gets lost in discussion between data and analysis ( where both sides are true depending upon circumstances)

Btw, Tuesday is the day of Mars and Red is the color of Mars so according to astrology, wearing red on Tuesday should give one a competitive advantage but I don't have data set to prove or discard this !!

Monday, August 1, 2011

Why SME’s have poor quality and MNC’s have poor services? Game theory analysis

The quality and service dilemmas of SME’s and MNC’s can be analyzed from the game theory.



The quality of finished product is dependent on quality of input components.

Both SME and MNC buy input component from a same vendor.

If the vendor has some defected lot, the vendor has three choices –

  • Choice 1: Discard defected lot
  • Choice 2: Supply the defected lot to SME
  • Choice 3: Supply the defected lot to MNC

Assume price of the component is 5 units and profit is 1 unit. If vendor discards than he will feel loss of 4 units. So present pay off for choices are:

  • Choice 1: (-4 Units)
  • Choice 2: (1 Unit)
  • Choice 3: (1 Unit)

But there are future consequences and payoffs also

For choice 1, if the vendor discard defected lot , he would not be able to fulfill his supply obligations and face additional penalty. In addition the vendor would face short term loss in his books, and face negative corporate or investor pressure. Quantifying additional supply penalty of 1 Units and corporate and investor pressure as loss of 2 Units, the total future loss is 3 units

For choice 2, SME will not give next 3 year business to the vendor; assume the loss is 6 Units

For choice 3, MNC will not give next 3 year business to vendor, MNC business is much larger value, so assume the loss is 12 Units

So future pay off for choices are:

  • Choice 1: (-3 Units)
  • Choice 2: (-6 Units)
  • Choice 3: (-12 Units)

Combining present and future pay off for choices:

  • Choice 1: (-4-3 = -7 Units)
  • Choice2: (1-6 = -5 Units)
  • Choice3: (1-12 = -11Units)

Out of above 3 choices, the choice 2 of sending defective input lot to SME’s will be the best rational choice for the vendor

This game can be modeled on different payoff choices and assumptions but more often than not ditching SME’s is rational choice for vendors and that explains why SME’s often have poor quality.


Similarly for service, when an organization has limited service resources, it has to look for best rational choice on how to deploy them.

Assume a small customer has both option either to buy from a MNC or from a SME.

While present value of the customer is same for both SME and MNC, the relative future value of the small customer will be less for a MNC compare to the relative value of same customer for a SME.

In case of any service resource constraint, the rational choice for SME’s and MNC’s will be to give importance according to customer’s relative future value. So MNC’s are more likely to give less importance to small customers in comparison to SME’s.


SME’s need to look for service edge to beat MNC’s

SME’s need to watch out for the quality of their inputs from the vendors. They can sort out this quality dilemma by uniting with other SME’s for procurement and other areas.

For consumers, where service is not of much importance (such as FMCG goods) MNC’s are best choice. Where service is important, SME’s are better option. However exceptions will always be there!!