Thursday, April 15, 2010

Bio Fuel : Linking Trend Analysis and Scenario Planning

Someone asked the question how to link trends affecting bio fuel sector with future scenarios?

Reproducing my 2 sens ( Malaysian cents) answer

For developing bio fuel scenarios- Good question to ask is what is the element of uncertainty in future of bio fuel?

Uncertainty is in demand and supply.

2*2 matrix can be made for demand on one axis and supply on the other axis

Four scenarios popup

Scenario 1: Good Demand of Bio Fuel and Good Supply of Bio Fuel : Optimist
Scenario 2: Good Demand of Bio Fuel but Poor supply of Bio Fuel : Lottery
Scenario 3: Poor Demand of Bio Fuel but Good Supply of Bio Fuel: Pessimist
Scenario 4:
Poor Demand of Bio Fuel and Poor Demand of Bio Fuel: No Change

Now Linking Current Trends to Future Scenarios

Overall energy demand will grow but relative demand of bio fuel will depend upon
a)Oil Price Movement
b)Development of Other Renewable sources ( Solar, Wind ) ...Price Reduction and Grid Parity
c)Price Reduction of Bio fuel - Technology advancement
d)Government incentives for use of Bio Fuel
e) Development of end user applications - Bio Fuel Car, Bio Fuel Engines

The supply of Bio Fuel will depend upon
a)Food Price rise and public opinion against use of Bio Fuel
b)Excess Bio Fuel supply because of Competition
c)Government Incentives may boost supply or Govt. neglect may decrease supply
d)Rise of national protectionism and disruption in global trade

So on...

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

100 KPIs for Telecom Operators (Mobile Network Operators)

Figures in the bracket are indicative values for few Asian Operators

Subscribers (Subs)
1. Total Subs
2. Subs Segmentation: Prepaid (95%), Post Paid (5%)
3. Churn per month (3%)
4. Subscriber per Employee (13,000)

5. Minutes of Usage (MOU)
__a. MOU Segmentation: Prepaid (400) , Postpaid (1000), Aggregate (420)
__b. MOU Segmentation: Incoming (220), Outgoing (200), Aggregate (420)
6. Number of Outgoing SMS Per Sub Per Month (30)
7. Minutes Carried Per Month (MON) (50 billion)
8. % Airtime Capacity Utilization
9. Minutes Per Site
10. Number of Calls
11. Number of Calls per Subscriber
12. Average Call Duration
13. Roaming Minutes
14. International Roaming Minutes
15. International Roaming Minutes Segmentation: Incoming (64%), Outgoing (36%)

16. ARPU ( Average Revenue Per User)
__a. ARPU Segmentation: Voice ($4), Data ($8), Aggregate ($4)
__b. ARPU Segmentation: Prepaid ($3), Postpaid ($11), Blended ( $4)
17. ARPM (Average Revenue Per Minute)
__a. ARPM Segmentation: Prepaid ($0.15), Postpaid ($0.022), Blended ($0.02 )
18. Average Revenue Per Call
19. Average Revenue Per Cell Site
20. Average Revenue Per Employee
21. Revenue Breakup (%)
__ a. Access: Connection, Subscription (15%)
__b. Wireless Voice (55%)
__c. Data (5%)
__d. Internet (5%)
__e. Interconnect (10%)
__f. Roaming (10%), International Roaming Revenue (1%)
22. International Roaming Revenue Segmentation: PostPaid (99%)

Coverage and Spread
23. Towns Covered
24. Population Covered
25. Area Covered
26. Globalization: Number of Countries Operating Entity
27. % Traffic Within Own Mobile (55%)
28. Top 50% Users Revenue %
29. Top 50% Sites Revenue %

Market Share
30. Subs Share
31. Revenue Market Share
32. Minutes Market Share

Incremental Performance
33. Share of Net Adds Subs
34. Share of Incremental Revenue
35. Quarterly Sites Added
36. MRPU ( Marginal Revenue Per User)
37. Growth
__ a. Subs Growth
__ b. Revenue Growth
__c. Services Revenue Growth
__d. Services Revenue Acceleration
__e. ARPU Growth
__f. ARPM Growth
38. Subs Added / Retail Point of Presence (POP)

Operational Efficiency
39. Average Margin Per User (AMPU)
__a. AMPU Segmentation: Prepaid (More),Postpaid (Less), Blended()
40. Employee Cost / Town Covered ($2500)
41. Number of BTS Sites
42. Number of MSC Sites
43. Number of Employees
44. MSC/ Subs
45. MSC/ BTS
46. BTS/ Subs (1000)
47. BTS/ Km2
48. Capex
__a. Capex (% Revenue) (25%)
__b. Capex per Sub ($140)
__c. Capex per Minute ($0.07)
__d. Capex per Site ($100K )
49. Opex
__a. Opex per Sub ( $3)
__ b. Opex per Minute ($0.02)
__c. Opex per site ($3000)
50. Gross Capex ( Gross Fixed Assets + Incremental Capex)
51. Opex as % Revenue (60%)
52. Spectrum Charges as % Revenue (2%)
53. License Fee as % Revenue (6%)
54. InterConnect Cost as % Revenue (16%)
55. Business Operations Cost as % Revenue (15%)
__a. Service Opex (Customer Care & Billing, Service Creation & Administration)
56. Network Operating Cost as % Revenue ( 16%)
__a. Rental as % Network Opex ( 15%)
__b. Power & Fuel as % Network Opex (25%)
__c. Repair & Maintenance as %Network Opex (20%)
__d. Transmission as % Network Opex (15%)
__e. Core Network as % Network Opex (10%)
__f. Hardware and Software as % Network Opex (10%)
57. Labor Cost as % Revenue (5%)
58. OSS/ BSS Ratio

59. Subscriber Acquisition Cost (SAC ) : Dealer Commission, Terminal Subsidy, Sales, Marketing, Distribution
__ a. SAC as % Revenue (10%)
__ b. SAC / net Addition ($12)
__c. SAC / Minute ($0.001)
60. Sales Outlet
__a. Company Owned Sales Outlet
__b. Number of Retail Outlets or Point of Presence (POP)

61. Service Performance
__ a. RTT Delay (Ms) (800)
__b. Application Through Put ( kbps) (25 Kbps)
__c. Call Setup Time
62. Network Congestion
__a. Point of Interconnection (POI) Congestion (<0.5%)>95%)
__b. Standalone Dedicated Control Channel (SDCCH) Congestion (<1%)>95%)
65. Service Quality
__a. Prepaid – Prepaid Service Success Rate
__b. Number Portability – Drop Rate
__c. Handover Success Rate
66. Network Availability
__ a. BTSs Accumulated downtime (< 2%) Green and Sustainability
67. Energy Consumption/ Sub (10 Kwh)
68. Co2 Emission/ Sub (6.8 Kg )

Financial & Valuation
69. Gearing ( net Debt/ EBIDTA) (2.0)
70. EBIDTA % Revenue (30%)
71. PAT % Revenue (10%)
72. ROIC ( EBIDTA/ Gross Capex) (20%)
73. FCF ( EBIDTA – Capex –Tax) % Revenue (5%)
74. Capital Productivity ( Revenue / Gross Capex)(67%)
75. EV / EBIDTA (8.0)
76. EV/ Sales (3.0)
77. EV/ Subscribers ($200)
78. EV / GCI (1.0)
79. P/E (20)

Country Mobile Sector KPI
80. Penetration
81. Penetration ( >5Years Population)
82. Penetration per House Hold
83. Top 2 Players Share
84. Top 2 Players Share Change
85. HHI Index
86. Pricing Long Distance/ Local Price Ratio (1.5)
87. Average F2M Interconnect Rate ($0.005 / Min)
88. Average M2M Interconnect Rate
89. Sim/ User ( Number of Subscribers/ Number of handset Sales) (1.5)
90. ARPU (PPP Adjusted)
91. ARPU % of disposable income
92. Mobile Revenue/ GDP (2%)
93. Regional Roaming Usage (Roaming Travelers / Intra Regional Travelers)

Telecom Tower
94. Tenancy Ratio (2.0)
95. Average Rental per Tenant Per Month ($600)

Spectrum Efficiency
96. Busy Hour mErlangs carried per sq km per M Hz (4000)
97. Busy Hour mErlangs per subscriber (40)
98. Subs/Km2/MHz (100)
99. Subs/Km2 (Urban) (2000)
100. Spectrum per Operator (MHz) (5)


Little bit of information of my new book:


Website/ Where to buy -

Facebook Page -

A Business Fiction book - "Who is that lady?"

The book is about an idea that is converted into a billion dollar business, about a belief that an idea can be implemented and about formulating right strategy for converting an idea into a business. The plot harmoniously weaves around complex business fundamentals, required to set up, run and make a business successful, presented in lucid, easy to understand style. The novel is about implementation, about challenges that can be overcome, about success, about friendship, about passion, and about fun above all! All in all a hilarious and inspiring story on entrepreneurship and idea possibilities!

The book has got good and encouraging reviews from readers so far.

Dr. T. R. Madanmohan ( Ex Associate Professor IIM Bangalore ) says, “Reading ‘Who is that lady?’ brought vividly the moments of celebration and anguish of "identification of business opportunity", validation and construction of business model and implementation. A wonderful, written as a novel, that should be read by all current and future business leaders. Wish the book was available around 2005 for my class of Managing Technology led business at IIM Bangalore. I am sure the class would have devoured and gained much more from the book.” 

Sathish Sheshadri ( Management Consultant at IBM) says, “India is renowned for using stories to convey great life lessons. Who is that Lady could well become such a legendary story on the topic of innovation and entrepreneurship. Everyone from students to CEOs will find a lot to reflect on, from the pearls of wisdom that the authors have shared through the protagonist, Pratik.”

Major Pooja Gupta says, “The book makes you think... if there is anything in this world which is impossible.”

Subir Dhar (Principal Consultant at Infosys) says, “This book will inspire India’s restless youth to take up entrepreneurship.”

Neerav Nimesh (Entrepreneur) says, “An entertaining book, which is not only a good novel but also a very good book on management. The author has been able to explain the fundamentals of every aspect of business whether marketing, planning, strategy, organizational structure, H.R., lines of communication, team work, goal setting etc and has done so without appearing to dispense "gyan".

Website/ Where to buy -

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Telecom M&A Buzz March 2010

Based on True Rumors

Bharti – Zain
Bharti signed agreement to acquire Zain Africa asset in 15 countries at enterprise value of $ 10. 7 Billion ( Growth Strategy)…Mar 30, 2010

France Telecom
Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation (ETC) has signed a management contract with France Telecom, putting the running of the state-owned operator in the hands of a foreign firm (Operation Improvement)…Mar 24, 2010
Target double sales in emerging market by 2015 (Growth Strategy)
Acquisition Candidates in MEA – Millicom, MTN, Orascom
Acquisition Candidates in India, SEA – (Economics of Assets -License)

Looking for Sell Off?...Reading between the lines ( Operation Improvement)
Telenor Pakistan CEO said there are too many operators in Pakistan and that’s a problem as none of the parties have sufficient income to invest in 3G network. There are 5 operators in the country, and Abdullah thinks that’s two too much. (Rumor: Acquiring Warid and then sell it to China Mobile)...Mar 18, 2010
Didn’t bid for India 3G Auction (Is Uninor for sell off at later stage?)…Mar 22, 2010

May take M&A route in India. Target – Idea, Reliance, Aircel ( Economics of Subscribers) …Mar 10, 2010

T-Mobile May acquire Clearwire ( Economics of Assets – Spectrum)…Mar 18, 2010

Telkom Indonesia CDMA unit considering merger with another CDMA Operator Bakrie Esia ( Economics of Subscribers )…Mar 26, 2010

Kosovo Telecom
Kosovo expects to launch a PTK tender by June and announce the winner in August . ( Privatization – Operation Improvement)…Mar 29, 2010
Investors conference on the tender was attended by companies including Hrvatski Telecom, which is part of Deutsche Telekom, Telekom Austria, Orascom Telecom from Egypt, Cable and Wireless of Britain

MTN - NetOne
MTN's planned acquisition of a 49% stake in Zimbabwe's state-owned cellular network NetOne may collapse ( Privatization – Operation Improvement)…Mar 29, 2010

Zamtel - BSNL
Zamtel ( Privatization – Operation Improvement)
BSNL , MTNL withdraws from Zamtel Privatization bid after carrying out due diligence ( Mar 14, 2010)

Merger Speculation ( Economics of Coverage)

­MTS – Telkom Austria
Russia's Sistema Group is reported to be looking to buy Telekom Austria Group in a deal worth in excess of US$6 billion ( Growth Strategy)…Mar 28, 2010
Telekom Austria has operations in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Liechtenstein, Serbia, Macedonia, Belarus and Czech Republic

Vodafone -Verizon
Vodafone has been considering three options on Verizon Wireless: securing a resumption of dividend payments, selling its stake, or merging with Verizon Communications. (Growth and Dividend Strategy)...Mar 29,2010

Vodafone TDC
The Nordic partnership agreement between Vodafone and Danish mobile operator TDC has been extended by the both the telcos. Sweden and Norway are included in the non-equity partner market contract along with the existing agreement covering Denmark( Pre Acquisition Strategy)…Mar 31, 2010

Vivendi – Vodafone
Vivendi's CEO, Jean-Bernard Levy said that he would like to buy out Vodafone's 44% stake in their French mobile network joint venture, SFR estimated at $9.2 Billion ( Financial Rationale)…Mar 22, 2010

Vimpelcom - Millicom
Millicom announced that Vimpelcom has not completed the agreement to acquire its 74.1 percent stake in Millicom Lao, despite all conditions having been met. (Economics of Assets – License)...Mar 31, 2010

U Mobile
­Singapore's ST Telemedia, a unit of the Singapore government's Temasek Holdings is buying a one-third stake in Malaysia's U Mobile for an undisclosed amount ( Asset Trading – License & Spectrum)…Mar 30, 2010-04-02

Softbank – Willcom
Softbank to acquire Willcom and gain 4 Million subscribers and 2.5 GHz spectrum ( Economics of Assets – Spectrum)…Mar 15, 2010

Walmartization (Economics of Access)
China Mobile investment in Shanghai Pudong Bank…Mar 13, 2010
Orascom wants to buy Microfinance bank in Pakistan…Mar 11, 2010