Tuesday, July 8, 2008

What Next in Telecom? Investment Opportunities

To analyze investment opportunities in Telecom we need to answer first what next in Telecom and then analyze them from investment perspective.

What next in Telecom ?

1. Telecom companies will transform from being Utility Companies to New Age Marketing Conglomerates ..Serving Entertainment, Financial, Education, Business Services, E Commerce and yes Communication too.

2. Voice will become a commodity and even can become free with advertisement sustaining the ecosystem. VOIP, WiMax can make the basic voice free

3. Communication will be intelligent - Video along with Voice, Even in future Smell also ..also Real time language Translation , Speech to text capability

4. Mobile or End device will become part of a large real time data collection and analytical grid – like sensing pollution, traffic patterns, weather information, smart driving, location based communication

Analyzing these trends, we can develop insight about investment opportunities

Operators with New business models –

  • Offering voice as free and leveraging advertisements , data analytics and other services to sustain the ecosystem

Hardware – Telecom Infrastructure – Today geared for traditional voice model, this will transformed into conglomerate.

  • Need of Telecom infrastructure will be transformed to High Reliability, Real time transaction capability, Opex Saving, High traffic enabling
  • Vertical Focused- Finance , Entertainment , Education, Ecommerce


  • End user equipment – VOIP, WiMax
  • Low Cost equipment for Developing world
  • User Interface for browsing, entertainment, financial transaction, Education, ecommerce
  • Video and Picture capability
  • Smell Sensing Capability
  • Real time translation capability
  • Speech to Text Capability
  • Sensing capability – Air Pollution, Weather, Noise, Traffic
  • Improvement in Storage , Power Usage, Cost


  • Software is intelligent layer enabling Equipment and hardware to perform above tasks in cost effective, efficient and user friendly way – There will be bunch of tools, components developing enablers or solving one or more pain points for the new ecosystem
  • Special use will drive special needs like security and identity in financial transaction, Multiple identity for family, communication, entertainment
  • Specialized capability to try free voice model sustained by real time advertisements
  • Collaboration need in education, entertainment ( multi user games)
  • Analytical capability for analyzing sensed real time data

Value Added Service

  • Content for this new ecosystem ( Creation and Delivery )
  • There will be hundreds of value added services which will be part of ecosystem in above scenario from simple ones like ringtones collection to very complex smell library

I foresee that while existing companies will try to extend their products and services or transform themselves for this scenario, there will defnately be place for new companies to come with new models like Yahoo, Google, ebay, Amazon, Hotmail did it in internet era.

Law of Nature - Old has to give place to new, Finally there will be emergence of a new company which will dominate mobile Ecosystem- Like Microsoft did it in PC era , Google did it in Internet . History says this company might not be an innovator but a “fast follower”. Which one that will be? A future billionaire in making?

Publishing Date : July 2008


Sunday, July 6, 2008

Mega Trend - "Change" or "Rate of Change"

Current Mega Trend is "Change or Rate of Change" –

People Wants the Change, Globalization is creating Opportunity, Technology is creating possibility, Financial situation is creating necessity, Entrepreneurship and Leadership is making it happen. While it can be argued that Change has always been the trend, I would like to classify as rate of change which is current Mega Trend

Change from Corporate Power from US, Europe to Asia

  • Rise of Asian MNC's
  • Aggressiveness of Asians to acquire US, Europeans Companies and make global Empires
  • Shifting of corporate power, headquarters of MNC's to Asia

Changes in Financial Bubble-

  • Technology stocks , Real State, Commodity – What next where capital will shift next?

Changes in Telecom Industry –

  • Change from Local Operators to Global Operators - Cross border M&A to make Global Telcos
  • Changes in Traditional Telco Model - Internet and VOIP - slowly replacing traditional Telco Model
  • Change in Revenue Mix - Data Revenue and Video Revenue is growing faster than voice revenue

Change in Access Medium

  • Mobile as access medium - Communication, Entertainment, Information, Analytics, Financial Transactions

Change in IT and Software Market

  • Change from growing to mature market ,Software and Internet Cos- Sign of maturing market, Large scale Mergers
  • Change in Microsoft – Bill Gates Retiring, Implications and Change in IT Market

People wanting Change

  • Rise of Obamah

Changing demographics and Impact on Global Business

  • Old age Population in Developed World - Problems in Workforce and new market opportunity
  • Asian Countries - Growing working population, Rise in incomes, Rise of Women Power, Divorce Rates, Nuclear Families

Changes in Frontiers of Globalization

  • New countries From Japan to Korea, Singapore, China, India what next ? Vietnam , Africa?

Technology enabled Changes in New Areas

  • Education – Change to Student Centric Education Model from School Centric Education Model
  • Health Care – Change to Patient Centric Health Care from Hospital Centric Health Care

Changes in Energy Use

  • Change from Traditional energy sources to use of Renewable – Solar, Wind, Clean Tech

Changes in Disease Diagnosis and Treatment

  • Changes from traditional diagnosis and treatment to Biotech and Genetics and leap advancement in disease diagnosis and treatment

Changes in approach towards Nature

  • Changing approach towards Natural Disasters- Increase in frequency, Planning and Preparing for them
  • Change in Environment friendly business approach – From Social Responsibility to business imperative

Change from reality experience to Virtual Reality Experience

  • Change from two senses ( sound, sight) to three senses ( sound, sight and smell)
  • Changes in entertainment technologies – New age video games involving virtual reality

Publishing Date : July 2008