Wednesday, February 2, 2011

ICU ( Inflation Corruption Unemployment) Index : Which other countries face danger of revolution like in Egypt and Tunisia ?

23 Governments across the world are facing risk of their life by ICU ( Inflation Corruption Unemployment)
ICU in hospitals save lives of critical patients but this ICU (Inflation Corruption Unemployment) is fatal.

In hindsight it looks very simplistic argument that many failed to appreciate.

If a person is unemployed and he faces the pressure from rising food prices too, his survival becomes difficult. Further, when unemployed and starved person sees the blatant corruption and ruling elite not doing the needful he can come on street demanding change in governance.

This is what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. If reasons are ICU then these problems are not unique to Egypt and Tunisia only. Many countries in the world may face the same.

A quick data analysis on Inflation , Corruption and Unemployment statistics shows interesting results.

I start with unemployment data as it affects individuals most directly. I have taken top 50 countries with highest unemployment rate ( cutoff point comes at 8% unemployment rate) and analyzed them further for inflation and corruption data

The analysis shows 23 countries which may face ICU risk.

Top 50 countries based on unemployment rate (>8% unemployment )

23 Countries with unemployment >8% and inflation >4% and corruption score among top 50% ( In Alphabetic order)

Afghanistan, Algeria, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Namibia, Pakistan, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe

Interestingly many European countries were in top 50 list based on unemployment but they fare better on inflation and corruption hence do not appear in this top 23 list. Similarly many Asian and African countries fare badly on corruption but not in unemployment and inflation. They are also not present in this top 23 list. Good for them.

In the democracies, where public has opportunity to change government by legal framework such as in India, current ruling governments might loose power in next elections. In dictatorship or limited democracy revolution might be the possibility.

It is always a mystery that what triggered the revolution and when did this tipping point emerge? As discussed in Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Tipping point comes when any idea started by few has stickiness and right context.

A Few small incidents are enough to spark the protests. ICU situation in the countries can enable protests’ stickiness with the masses. The “demonstrated success” in Tunisia and Egypt will provide the context for the protests to turn into revolution.

ICU is fine. But can revolution be demystified and predicted by simple spread sheet analysis?


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